Tuesday, January 02, 2007

NFL MVP Wrapup

If one more person comes out and says Drew Brees is MVP over LaDainian Tomlinson my head might explode. I read Peter King's MMQB religiously because underneath all his preachiness is some good ol' analysis. But, the stubborness King has displayed in his Drew Brees for MVP campaign is embarassing for one of the top analysts in the country. Here was his Drew Brees for MVP wrapup in yesterday's column:

The final straw for me was seeing the Saints, 3-13 and orphans of Katrina 12 months ago, march into the Meadowlands last week and put a 23-point whipping on the playoff-starved Giants, with Brees -- despite his receivers dropping eight first-half passes -- piloting the way. Again, my decision to choose Brees over Tomlinson is based on four things: 1) how far the Saints have come in one year (from the bottom of the NFC South and the second-worst record in football to the top of the NFC South and the second seed in the NFC playoffs) and Brees was the biggest on-field reason for the climb; 2) how screwed the Saints would be without him, with Jamie Martin or some far lesser player at quarterback; 3) how well he has played, with an NFL-high 4,372 passing yards, and performances like his five-touchdown, 377-yard strafing of the Cowboys at Dallas; 4) to a much lesser degree, how much he's meant to a wounded city. "Drew's not only the MVP of the league, in my opinion,'' said Saints GM Mickey Loomis. "He's been the MVP of our city coming back.''


Where to begin? First of all, it's clear by the tone of his writing that inside, King knows he's wrong because of how defensive he is. It reminds me of when, in the mid-90's, I would argue Ewing was better than Olajuwon or Lofton was better than Griffey. Of course, I was twelve then. Do you notice the way King starts and ends the paragraph with references to Katrina? That's something else that bothers me about him. Look, we know, Katrina sucked, New Orleans was ravaged, but I don't think Drew Brees being MVP will make the city any better and I don't think it's fair to the rest of the league to give Brees an advantage because of a natural disaster last year. Why mention Katrina, Mr. King, both as the opening and closing argument to your Brees for MVP case if it's only "to a much lesser degree" part of your case? I was taught in writing that the strongest parts of your argument should be at the beginning and at the end because, you see Mr. King, the way the human mind works, it's apt to forget items in the middle. But, don't worry, I'll get to those too.

Your point about the Giants is laughable. I watched that game in full and I know the Saints dropped eight passes, but you may have noticed, if you looked at the box score, Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister ran for a combined 234 yards. You may have noticed that the Giants offense ran exactly ZERO plays in Saints territory. You may have noticed on the Saints killer 18 play 89 yard, 8:39 second quarter drive of the day that put them up for good before halftime, Reggie Bush ran 10 times for 70 yards. I know he handed the ball off to Bush all ten times but when Larry Johnson singlehandedly beat the Jags this past weekend did Huard and Green pilot the way? And, I think, when a team's defense doesn't allow the opposing team to cross the fifty for the last 57 minutes of the game, the Saints could've won this game with Jaime Martin at the helm. Also, it was the GIANTS!!!! These guys have been one of the ten worst teams in the NFL the last eight weeks.

Your next point, "how far the Saints have come in one year (from the bottom of the NFC South and the second-worst record in football to the top of the NFC South and the second seed in the NFC playoffs) and Brees was the biggest on-field reason for the climb" I like how the NFC gets mentioned three times. The NFC finished the season 16 games under .500 against the AFC. Did you know the Knicks were one game out of being the Atlantic Division champions and subsequent #4 seed in the WHOLE Eastern Conference? If they make that one game climb, will we be talking about the amazing turnaround Isiah Thomas and Stephon Marbury completed this year? How that is more impressive than what Dirk is doing for the best team in the west, Dallas Mavericks because Dirk's got more talent around him? I know the Saints played that last game like a preseason game but they finished 10-6...what would've gotten them tied for fifth with the Jets in the AFC. That Jets team being the guys who went 4-12 last year or one meaningless final game victory better than New Orleans. Under Kings's logic is Chad Pennington, the ultimate game-piloter, an MVP candidate? Or what about McNair, who piloted the Ravens to a more impressive seven game improvement, going from 6-10 to 13-3. Against the AFC, the Saints beat Cleveland and lost to the solid Bengals, Steelers and excellent Ravens. (Did you know the Chargers played the same four teams and actually went 3-1 against them? Interesting.) Look, I know the Chargers have more talent than the Saints but the difference between the Chargers 14-2 record and the Saints 10-6 record is the same difference between the Saints 10-6 record and the Houston Texans 6-10 record.

His next point, the "how screwed the Saints would be" point about Jaime Martin being the backup. I guess this an okay point because the Chargers backup running back is Michael Turner who is a better backup than Martin is. But, by this logic, isn't Peyton Manning the MVP? I mean, I think the Colts go 4-12 with Jim Sorgi at the helm? Or what about Tom Brady? Didn't the Patriots go 12-4 this year with a lot less offensive talent around Brady than Brees had in New Orleans? And, people seem to forget when talking about how bad the Saints were last year that Deuce McAllister, a Pro Bowl running back was out for the season. Maybe we can argue Brees is responsible for Marques Colston being good but in this past off-season, the Saints got McAllister back and picked Reggie Bush with the #2 pick. Those two guys, who could be expected to play well no matter who the QB, combined for 2562 yards this year.

His next point, King sneaks in here because he knows it's ludicrous, "how well he has played, with an NFL-high 4,372 passing yards, and performances like his five-touchdown, 377-yard strafing of the Cowboys at Dallas." Why is it ludicrous? Well, first off, shouldn't how well you've played maybe be the first criteria for MVP? And, second, if how well you've played is the criteria, doesn't the best season ever by anyone probably garner some attention over a league high passing yardage? And, I did some research on that high passing yardage Brees has accumulated. Discounting the last game where he didn't really play, in the five losses this year, Brees had 349 yards, 383 yards, 398 yards, 510 yards and 207 yards passing. So, of the eight times Brees threw for over 300 yards, the Saints went 4-4. When Brees threw for under 200 yards, the Saints went 5-0. So, maybe, just maybe, Brees' yardage doesn't have a direct correlation to Saints victory.

Meanwhile, we have Tomlinson, who, when the Chargers were 4-2, having just lost to Kansas City and sitting a game behind Denver decided to turn it on. The Chargers would go on to win their next ten ganes, In the next nine games he rushed for over 100 yards each game and he probably would've in the tenth if he hadn't been benched for a meaningless second half. During those nine games, the Chargers won six by less than ten points. Those nine games:
St. Louis, 38-24, Tomlinson 240 total yards, 3 TD
Cleveland, 32-25, Tomlinson 192 total yards, 3 TD
Cincinnati, 49-41, Tomlinson 158 total yards, 4 TD
Denver, 35-27, Tomlinson 179 total yards, 4 TD
Oakland, 21-14, Tomlinson 114 total yards, 2 TD (throws the other TD to Gates)
Buffalo, 24-21, Tomlinson 192 total yards, 2 TD
Denver, 48-20, Tomlinson 112 total yards, 3TD
Kansas City 20-9, Tomlinson 204 total yards, 2 TD
Seattle 20-17, Tomlinson 133 total yards, 0 TD

Discounting the last game, once all year Tomlinson didn't combine, through rushing and receiving to go over 100 yards. If a game in which Brees went 13-32, for 132 yards and had his second lowest rating of the year is Mr. King's final straw for why Brees should be MVP, then I guess, out of the seven games they would've lost had LT not played, I'd choose the game against the Chiefs as my "final straw" for why LT is MVP. In this game, in which Phillip Rivers went a Rex Grossman-like 8-23, for 97 yards, with 2 INT and a passer rating of 12.4, the Chargers still put up 20 points behind LT's 199 rushing yards and two touchdowns. But, if I could choose a second final straw, see because with my candidate, there's been more than that one Dallas statement game, I might go all sappy like King and choose a defining game where LT didn't even score a touchdown. A game where his qb led the Chargers to last second victory. A game, where at halftime, the Chargers led 7-0, thanks to a 62 yard run by Tomlinson. At halftime, Rivers was 1-10 for 9 yards. But, I wouldn't. I'd pick one of those seven other games where Tomlinson, passed, rushed or caught at least 3 touchdowns.

My ballot:
1. Tomlinson
2. Brady
3. Brees
4. Manning
5. L. Johnson (If Vince had won that last game and gotten the Titans to the playoffs...)

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